Can Michelle Vallejo Beat Monica De La Cruz and Flip TX-15? Yes, With Strong Voter Turnout
An organizer with LUPE Votes, which is working to boost turnout in TX-15.
It’s no secret that Texas is a challenging place for Democrats, but it is not a lost cause. While Obama lost the state by 16 points in 2012, Biden lost it by less than 7 points in 2020. Things have been steadily moving in the right direction, helped along by demographic change and an ever-more extremist GOP.
Credit also goes to Texas progressive organizers, a tough crew with a long-term approach to transforming politics in their state. Groups like the Texas Organizing Project and MOVE Texas, along with many other organizations are patiently building infrastructure to turn out voters and drive policy change. Even as the prospects for statewide wins remain daunting — for example, defeating Senator Ted Cruz this year is widely seen as an uphill battle — Texas progressives are keeping up the momentum by working to win races wherever they can. In 2024, that includes picking up seats in the state legislature, winning local offices, and flipping a U.S. House seat — TX-15.
Blue Tent is excited to help defeat Monica De La Cruz, the Republican incumbent in TX-15. We’re recommending two groups working to register and turn out voters in this district: LUPE Votes and Texas Turnout Rio Grande. You can donate to both here.
The Key to Winning: Stronger Voter Turnout in Texas' 15th Congressional District
Michelle Vallejo, the Democratic nominee to take on De La Cruz, can win this race. In 2022, Vallejo lost in this majority Latino district by fewer than 13,000 votes — in an election in which just 152,000 people cast ballots, out of an estimated 434,000 citizens of voting age. That’s a huge number of people who didn’t participate — 65 percent. Many of those who didn’t vote weren’t registered — Texas doesn’t make that easy; in fact, it’s one of hardest states in the country in which to register and vote. Political scientists describe the obstacles to participating as the “cost of voting” and it’s well-known that low-income people are less likely to register and vote when those costs are high. The household income in TX-15 is well below the national average.
In other words, TX-15 offers yet another case study of our broken democracy. Too many people don’t have a voice in politics and those with the least voice tend to be the most vulnerable to shifts in public policy. We’ve seen this clearly since Republicans won the House in 2022 by fewer than 7,000 votes across five districts where turnout lagged. They’ve been trying ever since to slash programs for America’s neediest people.
Boosting voter turnout would be good for democracy. But it could also have a major impact on the control of the U.S. House. TX-15 is just one of many competitive congressional districts where key Democratic constituencies participate at low levels. Over three-quarters of eligible voters in TX-15 are Latino. And while much has been written about the rightward shift of Latino voters, especially in places like South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley (which includes part of TX -15), exit polls from 2022 show that these voters favored Beto O’Rourke by 14 points over Greg Abbot in that year’s governor’s race. Higher voter turnout in TX-15 would benefit Vallejo in this fall’s election — and could determine the outcome in that race.
How LUPE Votes and Texas Turnout Work to Engage Voters
While Vallejo’s 2022 campaign received little help from the national Democratic Party, this year is different. In January, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Vallejo to the first cohort of its “Red to Blue” program, which supports candidates challenging Republican incumbents. The program offers resources to Democratic candidates, including staffing and funding.
As we’ve written elsewhere, though, the conventional campaign playbook for winning congressional races focuses heavily on winning over likely voters with broadcast and digital ads. Engaging low-propensity voters is a different challenge that requires outreach by trusted messengers with community ties. Donors who want Democrats to win — and then hold — districts like TX-15 must invest in this work.
That’s why Blue Tent is recommending two organizing groups working in the Rio Grande Valley.
LUPE Votes uses “electoral and political organizing to win justice for working families in the Rio Grande Valley” and has a strong record of registering and turning out voters. Its work this year in TX-15 includes door-to-door canvassing, phone banking, and digital outreach. LUPE started in 2003 as a 501(c)(3) to organize farm workers and went on to advocate across a real of policy areas including healthcare and education. It later added a c4 arm to amplify the voice of the communities in which it works. Today, LUPE Votes is the only progressive c4 electoral group rooted in South Texas and has attracted support from a number of national funders, including Way to Win and the Rural Victory Fund.
Texas Turnout Rio Grande Valley seeks to increase youth turnout in the Rio Grande Valley, working closely with high schools and colleges. It works year-round to engage people and has steadily built up a list of young voters that it’s registered. In 2024, it aims to register 8000 young voters. Studies show that newly registered voters are highly likely to vote and Texas Turnout works hard to ensure that they do, contacting those it has helped register with GOTV outreach as the election approaches. This work is important, given the low turnout rates among young Latinos. It’s estimated that just 14% of Latinos 18-29 voted in 2022 compared to 23% nationwide. A survey reported that 50% of young Latinos said they “were not contacted by any political party, campaign, or local or national organization ahead of the 2022 election.” Texas Turnout Rio Grande is a nonpartisan c3 and doesn’t advocate on behalf of candidates. But it’s important to note that young Latinos in Texas vote Democratic at significantly higher rates than older groups.
Blue Tent is recommending both groups as part of our People’s House project, which we created to support voter engagement efforts in battleground districts. It’s just wrong that so many people don’t participate in congressional elections that deeply affect their lives. Supporting LUPE Votes and Texas Turnout is a way to help change that — and flip a key House seat.
