Earlier this month, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke announced he’ll be running for governor of Texas as a Democrat, a long-expected decision that could have electoral ramifications down-ballot in the Lone Star state next year.
“I believe that the only way we are going to achieve great things for this state is by looking out for each other and moving forward together,” O’Rourke told supporters.
Since bursting onto the national scene in 2018 when he mounted a strong, though ultimately unsuccessful, effort to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, O’Rourke has seen his political fortunes ebb and flow.
His presidential campaign, an unmitigated failure, was harshly criticized by Texas Democrats and progressives for distracting from a run against Sen. John Cornyn in what might have been a winnable race. In O’Rourke’s defense, he did pour his efforts into starting the PAC Powered by People, which turned out voters across the state in 2020 as Texas shifted further toward becoming a purple state.
“We helped register more than 250,000 new voters,” O’Rourke said. “We organized our fellow Texans to defend our democracy in the halls of the state capitol when free and fair elections were under attack.”
Now, O’Rourke hopes to channel that energy into a successful campaign against incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, whose far-right rule in Texas has made him a villain for Democrats statewide and across the nation. From outlawing vaccine mandates to restricting abortion access, Abbott has run Texas as an example of what an unrestrained GOP looks like—and that should worry liberals.
Polling earlier this month, before O’Rourke’s announcement, shows the former congressman in a tight race with Abbott, 44% to 43%. About 10% are undecided.
For donors looking to flip the balance of power in one of the biggest potential electoral prizes in the country, O’Rourke’s candidacy could open an opportunity to invest in down-ballot races. With the national attention O’Rourke brings, the governor’s race will be even more of a story, and with that, state Democratic politicians will have access to the cash that outsized focus can bring.
Some, like political commentator Matthew Dowd, a recent convert to the party, have a national reputation for fighting for right-wing causes and politicians. Others, like just-announced candidate for the nomination for Lieutenant Governor, state Rep. Michelle Beckley, have a national profile in their own right standing up for progressive causes. Beckley was one of the state Democrats who fled to Washington to stop a GOP-led election bill this summer.
Beckley is aware of the funding advantage Republicans have in the state. “I was outspent 10 to 1 my first election,” she said. “Nobody thought I was gonna win that either.”
Whether or not O’Rourke can spin his candidacy into a win for himself and other Democrats is an open question. Some residents of El Paso, the city where he began his political career, are skeptical of O’Rourke. Cynthia Renteria, who has known O’Rourke for years, soured on the gubernatorial hopeful after his advocacy for a development project in the city that was later revealed to be backed by his father-in-law’s company—O’Rourke, then a city council member, later recused himself from voting on it.
“He was putting his political career above working-class Mexican American families and neighborhoods,” she said. “Since then, I haven’t supported him.”
The problems in El Paso are a microcosm of the challenges O’Rourke faces. He’s no longer the wunderkind who almost beat Ted Cruz. Rather, he’s seen by many Democrats as the man who threw away a chance at a 51st seat in the Senate for a vanity presidential campaign. And the success of Powered by People isn’t enough to change that perception for activists like Renteria, just the type of voter O’Rourke will need to activate to win.
But even if O’Rourke falls short in his push for the governor’s office, his candidacy may bring Texas Democrats more electoral gains—and in that regard, it will be a success.