Bat Signal 2: The Biggest Investment Ever
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Note: This is an excerpt of a longer-form Bat Signal 2 memo.
Dear colleagues in progressive politics and philanthropy:
2023 was a drought year for progressive giving. We saw electoral organizations lay off staff, tighten belts, and slash programs — not a great prelude to an existential election year. Last September, I sent out a Bat Signal memo alerting donors to this dangerous trend.
Since then a LOT has happened. The horrifying situation in Israel and Gaza divided the Democratic base. Biden’s polling got worse. Trump went full-throated fascist. The economy improved a bit. And we won big elections that offered hope.
I’ve been heartened listening to donors, dozens of whom decided to make their biggest donations ever. Five of these donors — completely unprompted — contacted my organization to ask for advice on making $1 million donations. If five people, unprompted, contacted one organization to donate $1 million, I wonder what could happen with a little prompting. If hundreds more donors were to step up like this, it would be enough to fund our local progressive electoral organizations like we want them to win.
My goal with Bat Signal 2 is to be hopeful and actionable, to invite donors to reflect on the boldest things we can do to impact the 2024 elections. We are inviting donors and funders to consider that this might be the time to make their biggest donation ever. Existential times call for existential investment.
I am not just asking this for my organization Movement Voter PAC (MVP). We are one funding intermediary among many. It is an invitation for all of us to join forces to do the most important thing we can possibly do this year: Save our democracy, our climate, and our country together.
Are We Barrelling Toward Trump 2.0?
Consider these recent Washington Post headlines:
“Trump calls political enemies ‘vermin,’ echoing Hitler, Mussolini”
“A Trump dictatorship could happen. Start fighting it now.”
“Trump’s Day One Dictatorship becomes an applause line.”
“Fascism can grow on every soil. Nobody is immune.”
These are not normal headlines. This is not a normal time. We are less than eight months from the start of early voting in September. Biden is averaging 38% approval and we’re seeing a dangerous enthusiasm gap.
But all the scary polls and dynamics aren’t a reason to get depressed and disconnect. We have defied the odds and beat MAGA before — in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023. There is no reason why we can’t do it again in 2024. Biden is not inevitable. But Trump is not inevitable either. He is a walking dumpster fire. As Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg says “I would rather be us than them.”
Scary polls don’t mean “game over.” They mean “naptime over.” Let’s go!
How Much Will It Cost to Win in 2024?
In 2020, our side spent over $1 billion on progressive get-out-the-vote efforts outside of the Democratic Party, which generated unprecedented turnout and carried Biden over the finish line — but by just 43,000 votes across three states. This does not include over $1 billion in nonpartisan voter registration and election administration efforts.
In 2024, we need to invest at least $2 billion — ideally $3 billion — due to inflation, wage growth, and stronger political headwinds. MVP has a goal to move at least $100 million this cycle — a fraction of the overall need — primarily to local organizations in the top Presidential and Senate battleground states, as well as states with House and down-ballot races from New York to New Mexico.
The money is there. Americans donate $500 billion a year to charity — $1 trillion every election cycle — and at least half of that ($500 billion per cycle) is donated by people who vote for Democrats. The money is there. Yet less than 1% of it goes to what most of us agree is the #1 most important priority: saving our democracy, our climate, and our country from a scary right-wing takeover.
There is a giant disconnect between what most left-leaning folks worry and complain about every day (“the Republicans, MAGA, Trump, can you believe…yadda, yadda”) and where we are actually donating our money. Oddly, we are much more strategic in what we kvetch to our friends about than in where we write our checks.
I’m hoping we can solve that disconnect right now.
So I Asked My Parents
I am at the point where I am willing to do almost anything.
This brought me to an embarrassing realization: I’ve informally coached people for years on how to talk about money with family. But I had never asked my own parents. In tech, there is a saying: “You have to eat your own dog food.” You have to test things on yourself before you bring them to market. I knew what I had to do.
So I asked. It was humbling. My parents don’t consider themselves wealthy. They are academics who normally donate $50 or $100 to a candidate or cause. But years ago, they bought tech stocks that are now worth a few million dollars. They are proud of these investments - and they don’t want to sell them.
So I talked them through the options, and shared my perspective as a potential inheritor: I told them that if they are saving money for me and the grandkids, it would be an even better investment to allocate a chunk of it now to avoid fascism and climate chaos.
They talked it over. They understood my logic. And now they are excited to make a six-figure contribution — by far their biggest donation ever.
You Are Probably Surrounded By Wealthy People
My parents are not alone. In America, we have over 23 million “millionaire” households (18% of the population). The number of millionaires tripled in the past two decades. Two million households are decamillionaires. And 64,000 households are centimillionaires. A lot of these folks are Democrats. They are terrified of Trump. They want to do something. Yet paradoxically, they don’t feel powerful enough to make a difference. They just don’t see themselves as protagonists in the movie — not yet.
If you live in a relatively liberal, affluent community in a major metropolitan area or college town, and you associate with other liberal, college-educated people, the percentage of wealthy people in your circles is even higher. Chances are that you are surrounded by relatively wealthy people, who in many cases are much wealthier than you realize.
Wealthy people are mostly older — the average ultra-high-net-worth individual is 65. Most do not see themselves as wealthy. My mom grew up in the Depression saving every paper clip; the idea of being wealthy violates her sense of identity. But under the right circumstances, they have the capacity to make a very large donation to something they see as deeply connected to their immediate self-interest: the well-being of their communities, children, grandchildren, and the health of the planet.
Recently, one of our donors really blew my mind.
Back in 2022, a local MVP volunteer team in Massachusetts organized a house party and sent invitations to friends. An expat couple living in Europe got excited and sent a very compelling email to their friends back home. One of those friends sent it to another friend who sent it to his family. That person’s mom, a retired elementary school teacher in the Midwest, was inspired to make a $1,000 donation. She got added to our mailing list and started reading our monthly newsletters.
A few weeks ago, out of the blue, she wrote me a note after reading Bat Signal 2 and watching Trump’s scary polls and statements. She said she’d like to talk. We got on Zoom. She said in a very even-keeled way: “This is an existential situation. We believe in your work. And we want to give you a million dollars.”
There is so much hidden wealth in America — so many people you would never guess who have the potential to make major donations. We are all connected to way more people than we know. Those volunteers in Massachusetts, and the first five people in the email chain, had no idea their simple act of forwarding an email to friends would lead to a million-dollar donation.
Every single one of us is more connected and influential than we realize. If you really had to, I bet you could pull together a million dollars to save your country in this election. As a thought experiment: how would you do it if you absolutely had to?
The “Delay Gap”
Many affluent people intend to give generously at some undefined date in the future. There is a term for this: the “delay gap.” Of the 240 global Giving Pledge signatories who have pledged to donate at least half their wealth in their lifetimes, almost all have grown wealthier since pledging. Obviously, they have intentions to give. What are they waiting for?
With climate chaos upon us and MAGA breathing down our necks, what day in the future will be more strategic, better-timed, or consequential than the next few months — which are the last few months when we can still give early enough to make an outsized impact on the 2024 elections?
Are we waiting for after we have an authoritarian regime? Are we waiting for irreversible climate tipping points, so we can donate to the relief efforts? Are we waiting to leave it in our wills, and surprise everyone with our posthumous grace?
What if, by then, it is too late?
Here is the reality: There is nothing that will make a greater difference than blocking authoritarianism and electing a Democratic governing majority in 2024.
We may be motivated by climate, reproductive rights, voting rights, racial equity, poverty, any number of issues. But there is nothing that will have a bigger impact on these issues than deciding who controls the U.S. government — the single richest, most powerful entity in the history of the world. Nothing compares.
It is shocking and humbling to realize that we have the opportunity to steer it in the right direction. We have the opportunity to turn the Titanic before it hits the iceberg. We have the opportunity (and responsibility) to use our country’s massive power and wealth in a better way.
There is nothing that any of us can give money to that remotely compares to the impact, the strategy, the ROI, and the wisdom of steering that ship in the right direction at this tipping point moment in history.
Nothing compares.
It’s not that we don’t have the money (we do). It’s not that we don’t understand the problem (we do). It’s not that we don’t have the desire to do what’s right (we do). We just haven’t connected all of the dots together yet to see clearly that:
We actually do have enough money to make a major investment.
By making the biggest philanthropic and political investment of our lives, we can make a major difference in the course of world history.
We should think of changing the world in the same mental bucket as paying for our kids’ college education, or buying a second home or life insurance — as an investment in our own happiness and well-being and in the well-being of our family, community, and the people who we love and would do anything for.
That is why creating a giving plan is so transformational. It invites us to take a step back and ask ourselves the big questions: How much money do I truly need? How much do I want to pass along? How much can I donate? And how much of my donations are actually in others’ best interest to give now vs. later vs. when I’m gone?
Not long ago, I was talking with a friend who is an MVP donor in her eighties, and I was thanking her for making an especially large gift. I asked her what inspired her to give bigger than usual. Without missing a beat she retorted dryly: “there’s no luggage rack on a hearse.”
One of the great benefits of giving while living is that you get to witness the impact of your gift. It is a gift to yourself as well as others to enjoy the fruits of your investment in democracy while you are still alive to appreciate it.
Maybe in some bygone era it made sense to conserve money over time. Right now is not that period of history. We are in a race against the clock with climate chaos. And a struggle for power with a massive authoritarian right-wing political cult.
We are like the superhero who is trying to deactivate the bomb (before it blows up the planet) while fighting the bad guys, while wounded and broken-hearted. At this moment, each of us are called on to be that superhero. First, we have to knock out the bad guys. Then we have to defuse the bomb. The sequence is important. If we don’t knock out the bad guys first (via elections), then they will knock us out. Then the bomb will explode, and nothing else we do after that will matter very much. We have one chance. This is it.
The Gap Is the Ground Game
To use a tennis metaphor, 2024 is a “match point” that is likely to be decided by a few thousand votes in a handful of states. Depending on which way the ball breaks over the net — which side works harder for victory — the entire course of history could genuinely swing either way. We just have to act like we want to win and put in the work to close the deal.
There is a lot about 2024 that is beyond our control. The economy. Israel and Gaza. Third-party candidates. Unforeseen events. There is only one factor that is squarely within our control: The level at which we fund on-the-ground voter registration, mobilization, and persuasion.
For an election in which voter turnout will be pivotal, the Biden campaign is operating in a curiously low-key fashion. Obama’s re-election campaign had more than 300 staff hired by the fall of 2011. Eventually they had 800 campaign offices. By comparison, guess how many staff the Biden campaign had at the same time? 38. From all indications, ads and public appearances are their primary strategy, with a side order of digital micro-influencers. These are necessary but insufficient. Essentially, they are depending on outside organizations to run most of the ground game for them.
But they’re not saying that explicitly: “Hey donors! We’re not running a major ground game this time. Please make sure you fund the outside groups to do it for us.” Given campaign finance laws, it probably isn’t even legal for them to say that. But it’s important that somebody does.
Given the Biden campaign’s lack of robust field operations, MVP is taking our work of funding locally-based organizing all the more seriously, with plans to supercharge local voter organizing in every key state:
Where: We need to focus primarily on the nine critical Presidential and Senate battlegrounds (AZ, NV, GA, NC, WI, MI, PA, OH, MT), and secondarily on the most competitive House districts. The more we raise, the more we can also move to key down-ballot and long-term contests that we shouldn’t ignore. More on targeting here.
Which voters: We need an enormous focus on young voters, voters of color, women, immigrants, and LGBTQ voters. We also need to reach out to cross-pressured white voters, male voters, union households, rural voters, working-class voters, and persuadable independents. We can’t afford to take any voters for granted.
Frontline Organizers: Our Best Hope
Since enthusiasm, trust, and awareness of Biden’s accomplishments are low, our best bet is to fund the local and multi-state organizations with track records of turning out these voters. These organizations fall into five categories:
Major multi-state anchor organizations (approximately 100) like People’s Action and the Alliance for Youth Action.
Small-to-midsize national players (approx. 200) like UnPac and Be a Hero.
Major state-level groups (approx. 100 in the battleground states) such as Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) and New Georgia Project Action Fund.
Mid-sized local groups (approx. 100) like Durham for All (North Carolina) and 1Hood Power (Pennsylvania).
Micro-local groups (approx. 1,000) such as those in Georgia’s rural Black Belt supported by Black Voters Matter Fund.
This begs the question: Who has the time (and expertise) to do this kind of research and fine-tuning of funding? This is where MVP and our aligned funding intermediaries play a critical role.
Collectively, we are the “supply line” to the local organizers on the ground in the key battleground states.
Trusted Messengers Do It Better
We know these organizations are effective because they use proven methods, based on years of research and hundreds of randomized control trial experiments. They have the experience, relationships, and scale to break through the noise and move the dial. They are our best hope.
Local organizers are the trusted messengers who do the work to listen and talk with tens of millions of voters; to register, educate, organize, protect, and persuade them; and to generate enthusiasm to vote. They have an intimate knowledge of which segments of youth and BIPOC populations to prioritize for persuasion and turnout, that national campaigns and algorithms can never match.
Because of the unique dynamics of 2024, locally-based targeting and persuasion are essential. Our partners have to prepare canvassers for anything. Organizers must be trained in deep canvassing skills and tested messaging to inoculate against and counteract the many divisive wedge issues in this election.
They have done it before. They can do it again. They just need the funding. That’s the solution: Target the battlegrounds. Fund the organizers. Do it now — don’t wait!
The organizers are the frontlines. The donors are the supply lines. If we as donors do our jobs, organizers will have the resources to do their jobs.
The Biggest Investment Ever
Winning in 2024 will cost us. But not winning will cost infinitely more. We’ve written at length about the power of early investment, but it comes down to this: Earlier dollars generate more votes. 1-2 months before an election is too late to hire experienced organizers and build a field operation, and to put in place the infrastructure to identify, persuade, and mobilize every last voter. It’s time to stop undercutting our own interests by giving late. A stitch in time saves nine.
As you consider what constitutes your biggest investment ever, think of the 2024 elections as the strategic intervention that makes all future interventions possible. Winning Democratic governance this fall will not be sufficient. But if we lose, it will be infinitely harder to achieve everything we care about for a long time, maybe ever.
We need to invest enough to support local organizers to run their maximum programs in 2024. We need to support our heroic frontline leaders to regain their sense of financial security and confidence. They took a big hit in the last year. We want them to spend less time fundraising (and worrying about finances) and more time focused on pulling out all the stops to win.
That means making the biggest investment we have ever made in 2024 — enough so that they know in advance that they can fire on all cylinders in 2024, leave it all on the field, and still be on solid financial footing when funding falls off in 2025.
In short, we need to fund them at a level — and early enough — that they get their swagger back after a lean year, and feel confident to swing for the fences and execute their most ambitious plans possible in 2024.
Thought experiment: What is your “No-Regret” number? For each of us, there is a giving amount that represents doing everything in our power to stop authoritarianism and ensure a Blue Wave in November.
Ask: “What amount would be a genuine stretch?”
Now, imagine learning on Election Night that we’ve lost by a narrow margin.
Would you regret not giving more? If “yes,” increase your amount.
Repeat until you wake up the morning after Election Day with no regrets.
To recap, here’s what you can do:
Step 1: Take the early giving pledge.
Step 2: Make your biggest investment ever (we are here to help).
Step 3: Spread the word (you never know who it might be forwarded to! :)
Remember, you don’t have to do this alone! The original Bat Signal memo had multi-million dollar ripple effects because people shared it with their networks. Donating socially is both more fun and more effective. So call a friend or family member. We all know way more people than we can remember off the top of our heads (the average American knows about 600 people). So get together with a friend, go through your phones, brainstorm more people to call, rinse and repeat. We need to call each other up for duty and remind each other that we are called to do great things. At the end of the day, the election and the future of the world is in our hands.
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Post-script: An old friend who recently read Bat Signal 2 called me up to say he was making his biggest contribution ever. It wasn’t a million dollars, but it was a big stretch for his family. He also offered 5 hours a week to help organize others. This is amazing. If enough people do this, we will win in November. Then we can spend the next four years, from 2025-2028, passing the most progressive legislation in decades.
But we truly do need all hands on deck — including yours — please join us!