In the Trump era, Democrats didn’t have much power but they had a target-rich environment. Dozens of Republican members of Congress were vulnerable, and the anti-Trump “resistance” was fired up and enthusiastic. In the course of two cycles Democrats won back both chambers of Congress plus the presidency, in the process winning statewide in Georgia and Arizona while turning the California conservative stronghold of Orange County blue.
In 2022, Democrats may still be enthusiastic—they are donating to party committees at a record clip, and turnout was high in Virginia’s off-year elections—but now they’re stuck playing defense. They are almost certainly going to lose control of the House, with losses of seats likely in the double-digits. Holding onto the Senate would be a major achievement. And they’re going to be fighting tooth and nail for statewide races in nominally blue states like Michigan.
It’s through this lens that we’re going to be looking at 2022 races in the months ahead. It’s all going to be fairly bad news for Democrats. The goal isn’t really to win but to avoid losses as much as possible. People should be prepared for lots of defeats, including unexpected ones, and remind themselves that a terrible 2022 does not guarantee a terrible 2024: The 2010 midterms were a disaster, but Barack Obama still got reelected in 2012. Same for Bill Clinton in 1994 and 1996.
The question is, how best to avoid disaster? Here is a tentative guide for donors to ranking the relative importance of the midterm elections:
The Senate: everyone’s top priority, for a reason
The Senate is the more valuable of Congress’s two chambers. If the Democrats lose the House but retain the Senate, they’ll at least be able to confirm Joe Biden’s judicial nominees. So it’s a little bit of good news that the Senate map isn’t too bad looking for Democrats in 2022.
They’ll be defending seats in Arizona, Georgia, and New Hampshire, but Republicans will have to defend potentially vulnerable seats of their own in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, with the former two states having backed Biden in 2020. In Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the Republican incumbents are retiring, and in Wisconsin the incumbent is the Trumpy Ron Johnson, who is seen as vulnerable and has a low approval rating (there’s a chance Johnson won’t even run for reelection). If Democrats can pick up one or two of these races, which would be a major accomplishment, that could make up for defeats in Georgia or New Hampshire. (Races in Ohio, Florida, and Missouri, all Republican seats, are theoretically competitive, but it’s really unlikely Democrats can flip them.)
If it seems odd to be talking about Democratic pickups in the Senate while bracing for big losses in the House, remember that the Senate map matters a lot in any given cycle. In 2018, Republicans gained Senate seats while Democrats surged in the House because Democrats were stuck defending seats in Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota. Democrats don’t have those kinds of obvious flips coming up, but we shouldn’t dismiss their chances to hold the Senate.
The House: here’s the bad news
It’s hard to discuss the House in detail because the redistricting process hasn’t concluded in most states. But based on preliminary maps, Republicans have probably gerrymandered themselves enough additional safe seats that they’ll have pretty much locked down a House majority.
This doesn’t mean we should just wave the white flag. But it does mean we should temper our expectations. In a miracle scenario, Democratic losses would be in the single digits. In the worst-case scenario, it could be the inverse of 2018’s “blue wave,” when Democrats netted 40 seats. A couple dozen losses is a realistic number.
So when you’re donating and volunteering, try to think of it this way: The House is almost certainly going to flip. But we can maybe stop certain vulnerable incumbents from losing. Any House member in a district Biden won by fewer than 10 points is going to be at risk, and will need help to win.
Absent a set of very unusual circumstances, Democrats are not beating Republican incumbents this midterm cycle.
State elections: an opportunity to defend democracy.
State elections normally take a back seat in the national media, even though a lot of policymaking happens at the state level. But this year, these contests could be more important than ever. Democrats are defending governorships in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and in all three states Republicans already control the legislatures. If the GOP has unified control over what will be swing states in the 2024 presidential race, there’s suddenly an increased chance of something truly norm-breaking happening—a state government declaring a presidential winner before votes are done being counted, for instance.
This sort of electoral breakdown in 2024 looms over the 2022 elections, and an increasing number of Democratic strategists and smart donors are already thinking about governor’s races (and secretaries of state races) in these terms. Losing control of Midwestern state governments doesn’t just mean that Democrats won’t be able to govern in these places, it could set off a chain of events that leads to a very scary Election Night three years from now.
That’s why it makes sense to prioritize these races more than any House race, and potentially even more than Senate races. Losing control of both chambers of Congress would be bad, but losing the House is probably inevitable and therefore the window for Democrats to pass legislation is likely closing soon no matter what happens in the Senate. But losing these state races is how a very, very bad series of events starts.
On the opportunity side of the ledger, Democrats have a real shot at picking up the governorship of Georgia, with Stacey Abrams in the race and also a strong challenger to Governor Greg Abbott in Texas now that Beto O’Rourke is running for the job. Arizona is another state where Democrats have made gains in recent years and could flip the governorship next fall.
If donors on the left keep up their record giving, there should be enough money flowing that Democrats can fight well on all fronts. Let’s hope that’s the case. Given what’s at stake, now is not the moment to let up the gas.