As anyone who has ever given any amount to a candidate can tell you, donors are routinely bombarded by fundraising appeals from candidates. Sometimes, these candidates are ones you’ve already given to; sometimes these solicitations are the result of a campaign buying your information from another campaign or organization, which is why your inbox is often full of missives from candidates you’ve never heard of.
This is a brief guide to navigating these appeals and setting priorities for your giving to candidates in the 2022 midterms. We are assuming that you are a small to medium-sized donor, whose total giving this cycle will be in the hundreds or thousands rather than tens of thousands or more. This means that you won’t be giving the legal maximum to all the important Senate candidates and a bunch of key House candidates, but rather must choose where to give to get the maximum impact for your dollars.
Before giving to candidates at all, just remember that donating to grassroots organizing groups in key states is probably a more effective way for small donors to have an impact in this year’s election. (See our brief: Giving to Elect Democrats and Build Progressive Power in 2022.)
But if you do want to give to candidates, be smart about it. Here, we run through an overview of the objectives Democrats have in this cycle and what they can realistically achieve; then, we’ll discuss how donors of limited means can best contribute.
Democrats’ Goals
Defend the Senate. Obviously, the Democrats would like to retain control over both chambers of Congress, but the Senate is the more vital one, both because it allows Democrats to confirm federal judges and because Democrats have a better chance to hang on to the Senate than the House. They have opportunities to pick up seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; have strong incumbents running in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire; and in the most optimistic scenario, might be able to win Senate races in North Carolina and Florida.
Defend the House. Before the redistricting process played out, there was concern that aggressive gerrymandering by Republican-controlled state legislatures would make it impossible for Democrats to retain the House. Fortunately, a few court decisions went Democrats' way and new maps in New York, Illinois and California give them opportunities to win Republican seats. Given the history of the party in power losing midterms and Joe Biden’s low approval rating, Democrats are still in trouble here, and could lose a lot of seats currently rated as “toss-ups” by analysts. But the House will be hotly contested, and even if Democrats lose control of it, they’ll want Republicans to have as small a majority as possible.
Protect Democracy. Democrats must also have one eye on the 2024 presidential race, in particular, a worst-case scenario in which Republican officials, fired up by conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, use their powers to disenfranchise voters, throw out legitimate ballots, and in the most extreme case, use state legislative majorities to declare election results invalid. To safeguard that election, it will be important to win secretary of state and attorney general races in swing states, as well as state legislative contests (which are important in ordinary circumstances and often underfunded).
Which Candidates Should Donors Prioritize?
In 2022, Blue Tent is recommending donors give to candidates who meet three criteria:
The race is important. Senate and House races generally fit this bill, of course, since Democrats have such a thin margin in Congress. But so do state legislative races in legislatures that are closely divided, and secretary of state races in states that could decide the 2024 election.
The candidate can win. Donors have no shortage of winnable races to give to this cycle, but many campaigns that are trying to unseat notoriously awful Republicans, like Georgia Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene, have implied in solicitations that they have a chance to win when they don’t. Donors should be cautious about throwing money away.
The candidate needs money. This is the hardest condition to meet. There is a lot of money floating around Democratic circles at the moment, and it’s difficult to find a Senate or House candidate in a competitive race who is short of cash. Small and medium donors may want to help these campaigns, but truth be told, Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock probably does not need your $50.
The Basic Advice: Give to Lower-level Candidates in Need
Blue Tent is recommending individual candidates who we think match these criteria, a list we will be updating as Election Day approaches. But there is a general approach to candidate giving that can guide donors, which boils down to finding candidates who are flying below the radar.
As we noted above, Senate candidates and most House candidates aren’t going to have trouble raising money. The candidates who do need money are going to be names you haven’t heard of, mostly in low-profile state races. Elections for secretary of state and attorney general are especially important this year, since controlling these offices in key states is important to protecting against GOP efforts at electoral subversion in 2024. To get up to speed on key state elections, read these Blue Tent briefs: Winning Secretary of State Races, Winning Attorneys General Races, and Winning the Battle for State Legislatures.
Blue Tent will be recommending specific candidates for state office as the year goes on. Meanwhile, several organizations make giving for state-level races easy, including Swing Left and Sister District Project, as well as the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the official arm of the party in charge of winning these elections. Following the guidance of these organizations, as well as Blue Tent, will make you a more informed donor than simply reading the fundraising emails clogging your inbox. Don’t follow the crowd, and treat your political donations like investments. Billions will be spent on these elections—try to make sure that your dollars go where they’re most needed.