Sen. Bernie Sanders’ moment is very likely over. The independent senator from Vermont is surely not going to run for president again, and he would be in his 80s in a hypothetical 2024 reelection bid, meaning that his retirement may be on the horizon. But the left-wing energy his presidential campaigns stirred up, particularly among young people, is not going anywhere, and the causes that he championed—particularly Medicare for All—are going to remain on the progressive agenda for the foreseeable future.
If the Sanders movement will continue, the question is who will end up leading it. That leader might run for president, but could also be what Sanders was for most of his career: a veteran legislator who held down the Democrats’ furthest left flank and supported a suite of radical policy proposals. Who fits that bill? Thanks in part to Sanders’ trailblazing, there are now a number of left-wing members of the House and Senate, but being socialism-friendly isn’t enough to make you the next Bernie.
First, the “next Bernie” will need to be young enough to be a force in Congress for years to come—this means Massachusetts senators Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey are likely too old. They’ll also need to occupy a relatively safe seat to avoid being ousted from Congress altogether—Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and California Congresswoman Katie Porter are off the list. Who’s left? Here’s a sampling of possible replacements:
Sen. Jeff Merkley
The Oregon senator isn’t as famous as Sanders among the general public, but there’s no doubt of his progressive bona fides. He regularly co-sponsors progressive legislation with his colleague from Oregon, Sen. Ron Wyden (who, at 71, is a bit old for this list); one example from last summer would make it easier for states to investigate police departments. Notably, he was the only senator to endorse Sanders during his 2016 presidential run, and there was some speculation that he would run himself in 2020, but he demurred, promising instead to “work to fix our broken and dysfunctional Senate so it isn’t just a graveyard for good ideas.” (This is perhaps an unfortunate summary of his own Senate career.)
At 63, Merkley is probably too old to run in 2028 but would likely be a top-tier contender anyway (though the same could have been said about Sanders in 2016). But he can stay in the Senate and continue to advance ideas ranging from the elimination of the filibuster to the expansion of childcare.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Too obvious? AOC arguably already has the kind of movement behind her that Sanders had, and she’s also associated with a signature pie-in-the-sky progressive idea in the Green New Deal. Even though she’s a relatively fresh House member, her endorsements make headline news, such as her endorsement of Ed Markey in his primary against challenger Joe Kennedy III—an episode that shows that she’s not afraid of intra-party paint-trading.
In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Ocasio-Cortez seems likely to continue to challenge the party establishment. She's openly criticized the way her moderate colleagues ran their campaigns, dinging them for backing the wrong policies and having insufficiently robust digital operations. That's led to a lot of blowback, but she can take it—her huge social media following gives her an independent base of political power while making her one of the most effective fundraisers in Congress.
Where her career goes from here is an open question. Many are penciling her in for a presidential run in the near future. She could challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer’s seat whenever he retires, though that will likely be a tough fight, given the rough-and-tumble world of New York State politics. She could maintain her post in the House, or even leave it to become a full-time activist—exerting an enormous pull over the world of the left.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal
A slightly more institutional choice for Bernie’s successor, the congresswoman from Washington’s 7th district (which includes ultra-blue Seattle) is the co-chair of the Progressive Caucus and the sponsor of the House version of Medicare for All, a cause she’s knowledgeable and passionate about. If she had been elected in 2018 rather than 2016, she’d likely be considered a member of “the squad,” given her status as a relatively young woman of color and a relatively new member. Instead, she’s become a mentor to the even-younger group and represents a more cautious approach than the one initially adopted by AOC. You don’t hear about Jayapal getting into hot water with the Democratic leadership, though she sometimes pushes them on issues. (Her Progressive Caucus got Pelosi to add a provision that would force Donald Trump to reveal business tax returns to an omnibus anti-corruption, pro-voting rights bill in 2019.)
The thing distinguishes her from Sanders (and AOC) is her role with the Progressive Caucus, which puts her in the position of having to adjudicate conflicts between members about how aggressive they should be in making demands of the Democratic Party. She's therefore unlikely to be a bomb thrower or someone who regularly attacks Pelosi in public. But given her ability to build coalitions and mentor young members, Jayapal is likely to ascend to a leadership position in the House if she doesn’t eventually move up to the Senate. Whether she’s an out-in-front standard bearer of the movement or a behind-the-scenes operator, she’ll have enormous sway in progressive circles for years to come.
Rep. Ayanna Pressley
Any of the non-AOC members of the squad could one day become a viable movement leader or presidential candidate (except for Ilhan Omar, who was born in Somalia and is ineligible for the nation’s highest office). But it’s worth singling out Pressley because she has the easiest path to the Senate. Markey and Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts’s two senators, are both over 70, the state’s voters have shown themselves willing to elect a progressive, and Pressley herself hasn’t ruled out a future Senate run.
If she got to the Senate quickly, it would be a landmark moment—she would likely become one of the youngest members of the upper chamber, one of its few women of color, as well as one of its most progressive voices. Would she have more of a platform than AOC? Probably not. But after a successful Senate campaign, you know she would be asked whether she’d run for president. The answer might be yes.
