For Democrats, losing North Carolina in 2020—which went to former President Donald Trump by a narrow 1.35%—hurt.
The state has only voted for a Democrat for president twice in the last 56 years, but nonetheless seems tantalizingly close to flipping blue. While voters re-elected Sen. Thom Tillis, Democrats picked up two seats in the House to improve the federal delegation balance to 5-8 in the GOP’s favor.
But activists and advocates warn that the path is not as easy as it might appear and that Democrats still face daunting odds. Without a shift in how the party approaches voters—and a focus on materially improving people’s lives year-round—any efforts are likely doomed to fail.
The challenge
North Carolina is a diverse state with demographics that traditionally suggest a Democratic lean among the population. According to the research site Carolina Demography, North Carolina’s population in 2018 was 63% white, 21% Black, 10% Hispanic or Latino, 3.1% Asian or Pacific Islander.
Democrats hold a nominal edge in party registration, the site reports. Registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans 36% to 30%. And 33% of voters are unaffiliated, with only 0.7% belonging to a third party.
North Carolina’s governor, Roy Cooper, is a Democrat, but outside of his office, the GOP’s hold over state politics is complete, with the party controlling the lieutenant governor’s office and the state House and Senate.
Wamiq Chowdhury, an attorney and member of the Democratic Socialists of America’s Chapelboro Branch, told Blue Tent that Republican power in the state will prove hard to shake, at least in the short term, without a reimagining of Democratic Party priorities.
“The GOP here has been very effective at what they generally do—take control of key institutions and bend them to make it very difficult to break that control,” Chowdhury said. “On the state level, the Dems operate much as they do elsewhere, clinging to traditional political wisdom that gets discredited more every day.”
To Chowdhury, also a former Democratic precinct chair, the solution is simple—Democrats need to reset and appeal to core constituencies by presenting solutions to their problems that don’t just come up every two years when they need their votes.
“The party needs to build community among its electorate, listen to what people are asking for, and demonstrate real commitment to improving their material conditions,” Chowdhury said.
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North Carolina 2020 results
What party leaders say
North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Bobbie Richardson, who was elected to the leadership position in February, told the News and Observer that the party ran into problems with campaigning in a pandemic. And that wasn’t all.
“We also believed that the Republican Party had done such a poor job of serving the people that more people would have been disenchanted with the party,” Richardson said.
In order to change the equation, Richardson said, Democrats need to make sure they’re taking the smart approach to turning out the vote around the state. That means understanding that regional efforts will require disparate tactics.
“We’ve just got to organize much better,” said Richardson. “We’ve got to have a 100-county effort, and we’ve got to tailor our strategies to the different regions—because what will work in Durham may not even work in Wake County.”
To party activist Colton Browder, a student at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and already a veteran of a number of campaigns, there’s potential in the state’s shifting political center of gravity. Browder echoed Richardson’s position that Democrats need to take a place-by-place approach to getting the message out to voters.
“Democrats made large inroads in suburban counties such as Cabarrus, Alamance and Union in 2020, but took a hit in rural areas that are largely losing population,” said Browder. “I am a firm believer in investing everywhere across the state, and I believe that the Democratic Party of NC is ready to pursue a 100-county strategy in order to win back parts of our state.”
What activists say
Organizing efforts outside of the Democratic Party are pushing the state to a more progressive future, said labor activist Bryan Conlon, but it’s a slow road. Conlon, a longtime organizer in the state, told Blue Tent that progressive prospects were “uneven, and it varies depending on what kind of political work you’re doing.”
“You have pockets of thorough left-leaning electoral organizing surrounded by wastelands of nothing,” said Conlon. “Labor’s deepest concentrations are in the Triangle, Charlotte and Fayetteville, with pockets scattered hither and yon.”
“There’s all kinds of smaller, local-level campaigns that are too numerous to mention, along with ongoing mutual aid organizing in most cities in the state,” Conlon added.
Chowdhury also noted the rise of progressive groups around the state.
“In the last few years, of course, we’ve seen the rise of groups like DSA, Sunrise, Extinction Rebellion, Our Revolution, etc.,” Chowdhury said. “As a DSA member, I know we’ve grown leaps and bounds here.”
The Black church is a major driver of organizing in North Carolina. As Blue Tent reported, Rev. William Barber III’s Repairers of the Breach group and Poor People’s Campaign have been hard at work advocating for a fairer and more justice-oriented approach to economic and racial justice in North Carolina and around the country.
“The primary anchor for progressive organizing remains the Black church, and the NC NAACP specifically,” said Conlon.
Progressives also need to compete for funding. Conlon, who’s no stranger to the ups and downs of organizing, said that finding cash is a “big impediment for a lot of things.”
“There’s a lot of extremely talented, extremely skilled organizers who are just barely scraping by and the grassroots organizing that might actually keep the GOP from entrenching itself in power as a minority party does not get support,” Conlon said.
Browder, the Democratic Party organizer, told Blue Tent that funding opportunities can also change depending on the region.
“A progressive group operating in the Raleigh area is much more likely to have financial backing and support than one in Lumberton, for example,” said Browder. “Access to funding for groups and candidates alike is more tied to the wealth of the area they’re in than partisanship; certain wealthy areas that are largely conservative but have a few high-dollar Democratic donors can bring in more money than more rural and Democratic areas in the Northeast can.”
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North Carolina Demographics
The path to victory
North Carolina is within reach of a Democratic flip, even if that will take some effort. The state leans Republican but has a population that could easily move left.
To Browder, the state party’s election of Richardson as chair and Floyd McKissick Jr. as first vice chair speaks well of Democratic commitment to victory in 2022 and into the future.
“They’ve both espoused the importance of competing everywhere and reaching out to voters who the party hasn’t touched in many electoral cycles in order to earn their support once again,” Browder said. “I think that’s a critical focus for the party going forward, and their embrace of competing everywhere will pay off in dividends down the road.”
That’s the right approach, said Chowdhury. But in order to get the most bang for the buck, Democrats need to invest in the deep, young bench that they have available in the state. And entrenched interests in the party are standing in the way of the kind of youth-driven revival the Democrats need to take advantage of to flip the state.
“There is all the opportunity in the world here for the Democrats, but the statewide political culture from my perspective is a mess, and I don’t see the party doing anything to change that,” said Chowdhury. “There are young progressive forces that could be unleashed to the party’s benefit here, but party leaders are totally disconnected from that and find it threatening.”
Chowdhury added that in his view, if Democrats make an effort to meet voters where they are, the party has “a real opportunity to capture a much larger share of the vote, even from Trump-supporting folks.” But, he cautioned, the party needs to invest time and resources into organizing and pushing for improving people’s lives in the meantime—not just showing up when it needs votes.
“This is important everywhere, but especially in the South, where community is still a widely held cultural value; the Democrats have to start from there, and in a materially meaningful way, not just lip service,” Chowdhury said.
