The 2020 general election in Montana wasn’t remotely close. Donald Trump carried the state over Joe Biden 56.9% to 40.5%.
Geographically huge but sparsely populated, Montana’s three electoral votes haven’t gone to a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992.
But there are glimmers of hope in the state for the Democratic Party—a split Senate delegation and a governor’s mansion that has see-sawed between the parties indicate there’s a chance of progressive politics taking hold in the Mountain West state.
The challenge
With a population of a little over 1 million, Montana is a small prize, but one Democrats could work to win—though there are steep demographic challenges to making inroads at the federal level. The population is about 89% white, 6.7% Native American and 4.1% Hispanic or Latino, according to census.gov.
2020 was a low mark for Democrats in Montana, said Paul Dougherty, a union leader in the state, who called the results “brutal, absolutely brutal.” Former Governor Steve Bullock, who lost his race for Senate to incumbent Republican Steve Daines in November, also mishandled the pandemic, said Dougherty, making things worse.
“Bullock’s reopening of the state ahead of summer tourism squandered a lot of goodwill after our spring shutdown, and we pretty effectively stamped out COVID,” Dougherty said. “It seemed like he was trying to hedge and have things both ways during an election year. Instead, we had a massive COVID surge from the summer until Christmas, and Bullock lost his Senate race.”
Community outreach and other organizing efforts were also frustrated by the coronavirus outbreak, a situation that presented real problems for progressive organizers and Democrats, said Montana Conservation Voters Executive Director Whitney Tawney.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on our ability to organize,” said Tawney. “This past fall, we utilized a virtual canvass that included texts, digital ads, phone calls and emails.”
The state’s political culture also tests the ability of left-leaning candidates to get their messages out. Tawney cited Senator Jon Tester and former Governor Brian Schweitzer, both Democrats, as examples of the kind of politician who can win with a “D” next to their name on the ballot. Tester and Schweitzer are “great examples of charismatic candidates who have broken down party lines and captured the hearts and minds of Montana voters because they don’t look like typical national Democrat candidates,” Tawney said.
“In order for progressives to win, they need to define themselves outside of and independent of their national counterparts,” said Tawney. “Authenticity and saying what you mean still matters in Montana, and they need to lean into that.”
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Montana 2020
What party leaders say
In an NPR story in the aftermath of the 2020 election, which saw Democrats lose 10 seats in the statehouse and lose all statewide races, Democrats in Montana took stock of the bleak results and tried to look on the bright side. State House Minority Leader Rep. Kim Abbott told local affiliate MTPR that her caucus was willing to work with Republicans—likely an important skill if there’s much hope of pushing forward any Democratic priorities.
“Election results have consequences, and ours is that we’re dealing with fewer members,” said Abbott. “But, you know, we have a lot of talent, we have a lot of experience working across the aisle in a bipartisan way.”
The party hadn’t expected an all-red slate from Montana voters, as Democratic campus organizer Clara McCrae, a student at the University of Montana, told the station. The GOP sweep was a crushing surprise.
“I think we had put a lot of stock into this sort of legendary independent streak of the Montana voter with split tickets and people voting for the person, not the party,” McCrae said.
That was an understandable position. Polling had shown a closer race; a Montana State University poll in March 2020 had Bullock over Daines in the Senate race and a narrow five-point race for president between Trump and Biden.
The shift to the Republicans should tell Democrats something, but the party doesn’t seem to be learning from its mistakes, said Dougherty, singling out Tester for his middle-of-the-road to right-wing politics on certain issues. That kind of waffling isn’t going to lead to good outcomes in the midterms, in Dougherty’s opinion, and it’s missing opportunities.
“Tester, our lone Democrat in Congress, just voted against the $15 minimum wage,” said Dougherty. “A friend pointed out that he won his last election by 18,000 votes. Nearly 200,000 Montanans make less than $15/hr.”
What activists say
To Rachel Carroll Rivas, former co-director at the Montana Human Rights Network, the letdown of the 2020 election shouldn’t discourage Democrats. There’s a winning message of relief and social programs coming out of Washington, said Rivas, and Montanans are open to it, even if the generic ballot shows Democrats start out with a disadvantage in the state.
“There is a path for a quick comeback for progressives here with some seriously strong work,” said Carroll Rivas, adding, “If we can embrace the popularity of the economic relief programs that are coming down from federal Democrats, there is a chance for us to knock on our neighbors’ doors and get invited inside.”
Because policies like raising the minimum wage, student loan debt, and cutting child poverty are popular, there’s an avenue where organizing can move the ball forward. But, Carroll Rivas added, that doesn’t mean Democrats can ignore the elephant in the room—quite literally.
“Democrats in Montana can’t just ignore a global conversation, and they need to start practicing and getting comfortable at talking about how far-right politicians exploit racial fears to turn working people against each other and against the good we can do together,” Carroll Rivas said.
Activists on the ground need to be matched with money, and according to Carroll Rivas, “the high quality of work done by civic engagement organizations and opportunity for fairly moderate investments to make big waves due to the small population has led to some consistent funders.”
Tawney urged a little more caution, noting that funding comes and goes depending on the size of the race in question. And the results in 2020 could discourage funders from pouring money into what looks like a lost cause. It’s up to activists to change the equation, she said.
“We’ve been fortunate to have some really big races in the past four years that have allowed many groups to grow and build power, but given the across-the-board losses among progressives in Montana, many national groups might write off Montana,” Tawney said. “Ultimately, it’s up to in-state Montana groups to create unique, creative and strategic power-building opportunities that will attract progressive funders and donors in on and off-election years.”
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Montana demographics
The path to victory
Is there a Democratic statewide victory on the horizon in Montana in 2024? It’s hard to tell. The 2020 results were disheartening at the state and federal level. The state is fully controlled by the GOP. And Tester’s 2024 re-election bid looks a little shaky, albeit a year and a half out.
Plus, Tawney noted, even the things that are supposed to lean toward Democratic victories didn’t.
“This past cycle, we broke records for turnout with an all mail-in ballot, and many progressives mistakenly believe higher turnout will benefit progressive candidates,” Tawney said. “That clearly didn’t happen in 2020.”
Changing the narrative lies in organizing and patience. They’re two things the labor movement is known for, said Dougherty, who believes the path to victory is via union activism.
“Like the country as a whole, a lasting victory for progressives in Montana will come through organized labor and increasing worker power,” Dougherty said.
Carroll Rivas agreed, and pointed to successes that have already been realized in limited ways around the state.
“The most interesting stuff is the organizing around labor efforts, such as in the growing healthcare industry, around serious environmental concerns that are often location-specific, and the educational campaigns around civil rights issues,” Carroll Rivas said. “With painful political setbacks during the 2020 election, there is a real opportunity for Montana progressives to get creative in our organizing, to bring some fun, hold neighborhood meetings, engage in powerful ideas and do some deep rebuilding.”
Carroll Rivas takes a more bullish approach to the state’s Democratic future, she told Blue Tent. Montana is changing, and with that change is coming a political shift. If Democrats can grab hold of it, they can pull off an upset—and other national groups, including funders, would do well to pay attention.
“With changing demographics and a high potential for a lot of growth in the state, funders would be smart to partner with the Montana organizations now,” said Carroll Rivas. “There is a real question which direction Montana heads politically, and with real investment to build off of the great ground game here, Montana could be the next Colorado.”
