The Justice Democrats get a lot of press—both good and bad—for a PAC that has existed for barely four years and spent somewhere around $5 million this cycle, a pittance compared to the big players. What draws attention is how willing the so-progressive-they’re-pretty-much-socialists group has been to challenge their fellow Democrats.
Moderate Democrats have long feared that their party would see its own version of the Tea Party—a group of insurgents capable of elevating a phalanx of ideologues to Congress who push radical ideas and destabilize institutions.
So far, that has not happened. Centrism is still a powerful force in the Democratic Party. Politico columnist Bill Scher (a frequent critic of Justice Democrats) wrote in May that the left misread the moment during the 2020 presidential primary—voters as a whole were looking for someone close to the center and willing to compromise, AKA Joe Biden. It’s also true that the group’s endorsement win-loss record is pretty putrid. As the centrist group Third Way noted (perhaps a bit gleefully), Justice Democrats endorsed 74 candidates for office in 2018, and only four won both their primaries and general elections.
In the 2020 cycle, however, Justice Democrats have become much more selective. They endorsed just nine non-incumbents, five of whom won primaries and three of whom went on to Congress. That’s not a terrific record compared to some groups, but it’s not bad considering that in many cases, the organization is trying to push the envelope in terms of how progressive a candidate can be. It’s also worth noting that some of the Justice Democrats’ victories have been startling, especially Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s win over Rep. Joe Crowley in 2018 and Jamaal Bowman’s defeat of Rep. Elliot Engel this year—both victories over powerful incumbents. When you swing for the fences, it’s OK to strike out most of the time as long as you hit a few out of the park.
Justice Democrats are even more choosy when it comes to spending money. The group deployed its war chest to maximum impact in the 2020 primaries, targeting just three races:
Jamaal Bowman
The biggest outlay by far went to Bowman’s race in New York’s 16th District, where progressive groups like the Sunrise Movement joined for an effort to oust Engel, who was viewed by the left as a persona non grata for his hawkish foreign policy and pro-Israel views. Justice Democrats spent $920,000 either to support Bowman or to run negative ads against Engel. That was part of a wave of outside money surrounding the race, including $1.5 in pro-Engel spending from a pro-Israel PAC. Justice Democrats’ money clearly had an impact in the campaign, with Engel complaining at one debate that Bowman was “bought and paid for” by the group.
Alex Morse
The second race that Justice Democrats waded into was the contest between incumbent Rep. Richard Neal and challenger Alex Morse in Massachusetts’ First District. As in New York’s 16th, Neal was seen by progressives as a noxious figure, in his case, for opposing reforms to hospital billing and generally allying with the healthcare industry, which donates heavily to him. Justice Democrats pumped in over $700,000 to this race, which was marred by a bizarre incident in which Neal-aligned College Democrats not only accused Morse of predatory behavior, but tried to lure him into saying incriminating things on social media. (Morse, who is 31, admitted to sleeping with students while he was a professor at UMass Amherst, which was not against university policy.) As in New York, outside money flooded into the race, with the establishment lining up behind Neal and progressives (including Bowman himself) endorsing Morse. But Morse was out-fundraised and lost by 17 points, marking Justice Democrats’ biggest defeat of the 2020 cycle.
Kara Eastman
Eastman is something of an anomaly on this list, as she was aiming to win a tough race against a Republican rather than unseat an incumbent Democrat. The result was another loss for Justice Democrats and the progressive wing of the party as a whole. She was running for the second consecutive time in Nebraska's Second District, and had a lot of left-wing money behind her, including $325,000 from Justice Democrats. But for the second time, she lost—this time by a hefty four-point margin to incumbent Don Bacon, while President-elect Joe Biden easily carried her district. That's not a good sign for Justice Democrats' prospects outside of major cities and safe blue districts. If they want to carry their left-wing message to swing districts, they're going to have to figure out what went wrong here.
Cori Bush
The last bit of major spending by Justice Democrats was $170,000 supporting Cori Bush, an activist who was involved in the Ferguson protests and went on to primary Rep. Lacy Clay in Missouri’s First District in both 2018 and 2020. The second time was the charm, as Bush edged Clay by under 5,000 votes. In a race that was less expensive than either of the above contests, that $170,000 may have made the difference. Notably, unlike Neal or Engel, Clay was fairly progressive—after more or less inheriting the seat from his father, civil rights leader Bill Clay, the younger Clay supported environmental causes and Medicare for All. He was criticized for his coziness to payday lenders, however, as well as a perceived lack of energy.
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These races aren’t evidence of a wave of left-wing energy sweeping the country. In fact, Morse’s loss shows that even when you have a pretty good candidate and plenty of money, it’s hard to unseat an incumbent. What this shows is Justice Democrats adapting to an environment where their opportunities are few and far between. The message it sends to incumbents isn’t that the left is strong or weak. The message, probably interpreted, should be: Do I look like an opportunity?
Photo credit: Katherine Welles / Shutterstock.com
