There’s a new polling group on the block, and it’s focused exclusively on Latino voters.
With the results of the election now finalized, Equis Labs’ insights were proven to have been spot-on, particularly in its findings that Latinos are not a monolithic voting group. Despite Equis Labs’ research and warnings, Democrats were still surprised that Latinos didn’t completely embrace Democrats and that some even voted for Trump.
Every four years, there’s a deluge of think pieces about how Democrats can mobilize Latinos to vote for them. In elections of days gone by, a candidate needed only to speak a few words of Spanish and that was deemed enough of an effort.
Now, however, the Latino vote is crucial for Dems want to win the White House. According to a Pew study, Latinos are the fastest-growing voter bloc in the U.S. Making up 13% of all eligible voters, it was projected that 32 million Latinos were eligible to vote this year. Equis Labs sought to help mobilize these potential voters.
Equis Labs is a new 501(c)(4) polling group that seeks to provide resources, information and data to better understand the Latino electorate. Earlier this year, Equis Labs, along with its research arm, Equis Research, published a report on engaging Latino voters. Equis interviewed approximately 30,000 Latino voters in 11 battleground states. Here’s what they found.
By far, the report’s biggest finding is the importance of tailoring messages to specific subgroups. There’s no one-size-fits-all for Latinos. “We’ll keep saying it: Latinos are not a monolith!” Equis said. “Our research showed tailoring messaging specific to Latinx subgroups can maximize mobilization efforts.”
For example, Equis found that for Latinas under 45, female messengers were more effective than male messengers. However, older Latinas (over 45) preferred young male Latino actors. Latinas preferred race and class narratives and moral messages that mention Trump. For Latino men, the content was more effective when it drew upon explicit references to identity.
There are some findings regarding all Latinos. One is that a Latinx messenger is crucial for engagement. Heightened emotional or angry tones worked best. Additionally, a young male Latino actor was the most effective messenger overall, except with older male Latinos.
Additionally, “Vote for a Dreamer” messages were effective, as was mentioning that the Latino vote matters (e.g., “Experts are saying the Hispanic vote will be decisive in the 2020 election. More Latinos than ever are expected to vote this year. Will you be one of them?”).
Equis’ research suggests internet targeting would be successful. According to Equis, 80% of Latinos are internet users, and almost two-thirds of Latinos are on social media, with about half of them on Facebook.
The gender gap
Equis found that two key groups are Latinas and ambivalent voters. In an op-ed published in the New York Times, Equis Labs co-founder and president Stephanie Valencia explained that one of the reasons that Latina turnout rates are lower than Black or white women is the lack of excitement.
“While Latinas feel motivated to vote, they report lower levels of excitement about doing so,” said Valencia. “We have to close this gap, because high levels of excitement could influence not just someone’s decision to go to the polls, but also her ability to take others with her.”
Valencia suggests engaging Latinas online through traditionally nonpolitical mediums. “We need to engage Latina women in ways that are culturally resonant, including through nonpolitical channels on YouTube and Instagram, like makeup, gaming and mommy influencers,” Valencia said. “Latinas respond to messages that tie the importance of voting to tangible changes in their communities, that speak to collective power and reassure them that they don’t need a Ph.D. in political science to fill out a ballot.”
Equis’ study also suggests that Latinas tend to be more progressive than Latino men. In an interview with NBC News’ Daniela Pierre-Bravo, Valencia said that the gender gap is “striking, because it’s grown over time. We’ve seen it evolve since 2008 through 2016 and now into 2020. The gender gap itself in the Latino community is two to three times larger than in the white or African American communities by comparison.” According to Valencia, key issues for Latinas are healthcare, immigration and the economy.
The ambivalent voters
Equis also found that there is a large pool of ambivalent registered voters in battleground states. The number is a staggering 38%. These voters tend to be young and female.
“Lower turnout among this group isn’t driven by apathy,” Valencia explained. “Instead, ambivalent voters don’t believe their vote will make a material impact on election outcomes, much less on their lives, based on past experience.”
Valencia added another possible reason why ambivalent voters show up to the polls: “They respond to the violent anti-immigration environment not with anger, which is mobilizing, but justifiably with fear, which can be demobilizing.”
According to Valencia, one focus group respondent told Equis, “It’s really difficult to be excited about something that seems as though it’s out of your hands.”
It’s one thing for campaign officials to see numbers; it’s another thing entirely to understand why ambivalent voters are staying home.
Valencia argues, “Ambivalent voters need to be persuaded to cast ballots. It’s a problem that campaigns tend to think about Latinos (and most other voters of color) as only ‘mobilization’ voters who just need a nudge to vote right before the election — with the assumption they’ll vote for their side.”
Valencia cautioned that many Democrats have taken the approach of letting the Republican Party’s hostility toward Latinos and immigrants do their job for them. This is a problem because it sends the signal that Latinos are not a priority for Democratic campaigns.
“Young Latinos are more likely than their peers to believe public officials don’t care about what they think,” she notes. “Perhaps partisanship fueled by disgust for one party instead of loyalty to the other has left large numbers of Latino voters feeling sapped, neglected and unimportant.”
Valencia cites Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign as successful among Latino voters because it treated Latinos not as mobilization targets but as persuadable voters. In other words, if Democratic candidates want to win the Latino vote, they need to actually reach out to the community and treat Latinos as people and not as numbers. Engaging with Latino communities and understanding Latinos’ concerns, needs and hopes will increase voter turnout.
Post-election reflection
The fact that many Latino activists and organizers warned Democrats that Latinos are not a monolith seems to have been forgotten as soon as the election results rolled in. Before the votes had finished tallying, pundits began pointing to Latinos who voted for Trump in Florida and Texas as a sign of impending doom for Biden.
On Twitter, Valencia explained three key takeaways for concerned Democrats: First, Latinos are not a monolith, and it’s a mistake to look at Cubans in Florida as an indicator of Latino voter trends throughout the nation.
“I’m sick of ppl trying to cast Latinos as the reason Biden lost FL + TX,” she tweeted. “FL + TX aren’t the only Latinos in America. In both states, white swing voters swung back to Trump.”
“Pls don’t write just one chapter of this story,” Valencia added. “It requires much more nuance. Including: only 3% of the entire Latino electorate in US is Cuban. Yet based on many headlines, they are driving an entire narrative about all latinos in 2020. Only 15% of TX latino voters live in RGV [Rio Grande Valley] and there was a record turnout + support in the urban centers.”
Second, Valencia stressed that like many voters across all demographics, a lot of Latinos voted early and thus hadn’t yet been counted in certain key states.
Record Latino voter turnout in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, as Valencia predicted, put Biden over the top. A large number of those votes were from early voters. According to Valencia, Michigan’s early voter turnout was five times what it was in 2016, and in Wisconsin, the early vote nearly tripled.
“In both states, that was largely driven by Latinas,” said Valencia.
Third, progressive Latino organizers played a key role in mobilizing voters.
In her tweets, Valencia highlighted that both statewide and national progressive groups have been working for years to mobilize Latino voters. Blue Tent has covered several of these organizations, including Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA), Voces de la Frontera Action and Mijente.
“This election illustrates the promise and the peril and nuance of the Latino vote,” Valencia said. “The truth is, once Nevada and Arizona are finalized, the story should be Latinos, who built a historic brown wall in the southwest, are sending Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House.”
Valencia's words turned out to be true.
